Historic Flip: Democrats Hit Rock Bottom

Voters wearing masks at a polling station — Photo: SeventyFour / Shutterstock

Republicans are heading into the 2026 midterms with something they haven’t had in years: a positive favorability rating from the American public.

Story Snapshot

CNN data analyst Harry Enten flagged a net +5 favorability rating for the GOP in new CBS News/CNN polling.
This marks the first time in recent cycles the president’s party enters a midterm year with positive net favorability.
The Democratic Party’s favorability numbers have sunk to some of the lowest marks in CNN polling history.
Separate polls show Republicans with a trust edge over Democrats on handling Iran policy.
Some surveys still show Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, a reminder the picture isn’t all one-sided.

GOP Favorability Breaks a Historic Pattern

Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst, called out fresh CBS News and CNN polling on air that showed Republicans holding a net +5 favorability rating heading into the 2026 midterms. Enten said this breaks from the usual pattern, since the president’s party almost never enters a midterm year with a positive favorability number. He described it as a genuine surprise inside a network that has not been friendly to President Trump.

That kind of number matters because midterms often become a referendum on the party in power. Historically, voters use midterms to punish the president’s party, which usually shows up as a favorability gap working against Republicans this cycle. Instead, the CBS News/CNN data flips that script, giving the GOP a rare structural advantage before campaign season even heats up in earnest.

Democrats Sink to Record-Low Favorability

The flip side of the story is just as telling. CNN’s own polling found only 28 percent of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, the lowest mark in CNN’s polling history dating back to 1992. Republicans didn’t escape unscathed either, with just 33 percent favorability, the smallest GOP share since right after the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Both parties remain unpopular, but Democrats are losing ground faster.

A separate CNN survey from March 2025 found Democratic favorability at 29 percent, a 20-point drop since President Trump left office after his first term. Voters clearly aren’t rushing to embrace the opposition party even as they voice frustration with Washington overall. For Republicans, that means the GOP doesn’t need to win over skeptical voters outright. It just needs to look like the lesser of two evils.

Republicans Gain Trust on Key Issues

The favorability boost isn’t happening in a vacuum. Two separate polls this year found Republicans holding a narrow edge over Democrats on who Americans trust more to handle Iran policy. A CNBC poll had Republicans ahead by two points, and a CBS News poll released a day later showed the identical two-point advantage. Enten reportedly struggled to explain the numbers live on air, given how unusual they are for a network audience skeptical of the administration.

President Trump’s State of the Union address added more fuel to the trend. About 76 percent of speech-watchers in a CBS News poll approved of his remarks, while a CNN poll found 69 percent approval among viewers. Instant reaction polls always skew toward whichever party’s voters tune in more, but the size of the approval numbers still stands out as a bright spot for the White House.

A Note of Caution Amid the Good News

Not every poll paints a rosy picture for Republicans. A CNN survey from April 2026 found Democrats holding a six-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, matching the exact margin Democrats held in 2018 before that year’s wave election. Another CNN poll found Democratic voters reporting more midterm enthusiasm than Republican voters, a factor that can matter more than raw favorability when it comes to turnout.

Favorability polls and turnout enthusiasm are two different measures, and conservatives should watch both closely. The GOP’s positive net favorability is a real and historic shift worth celebrating, but Democrats still hold traditional advantages on the generic ballot and voter energy. Republicans have an opening heading into 2026, but nothing is locked in, and the party will need to turn favorable numbers into actual votes at the ballot box.